A series of swaying (and swaying) polls released on Wednesday made this reality obvious.
How serious are these numbers for Trump? To be clear: really bad.
Now, let’s see what these numbers mean for Trump’s chance of rising to 270 in November.
*If Trump loses Texas (and all other places won in 2016), he Lost Biden increased his electoral votes from 270 to 268.
*If Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he Lost Biden 278 to 260.
*If Trump lost Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania (and won all the other victories he won in 2016), he Lost Biden 279 to 259.
*If Trump loses Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin (and all other places won in 2016), he Lost Biden 276 to 262.
*If Trump loses Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin (and won everywhere else he won in 2016), he Lost Biden 271 to 267.
The meaning here is not to say that all these election map schemes are locked. After all, there are 152 days before the November 3 election. (Yes, I forget it.)
Instead, they should note that, as of now, Biden has many different ways of having 270 electoral votes, while the number of Trumps is constantly decreasing. Of course, the poll released on Wednesday did not even address Trump’s potential trouble spots in Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia-he won all of these questions in 2016.
In terms of its value, the best/most likely path to Trump’s re-election is to lose one or both of Michigan and Pennsylvania, and keep all the other states he won in 2016. If he loses both Michigan and Pennsylvania, he will fight for 270 to 268 votes for Biden to win. If he only lost Pennsylvania, he would win with 286 electoral votes. By losing Michigan alone, Trump won 290 electoral votes and a second term.
“The country is as polarized as it was two months ago, and the trajectory of the game has basically not changed. Biden has maintained a leading position in the national poll and has multiple ways to obtain 270 electoral votes.
“Although the daily development has brought some interesting topics to the cable network, today’s events will be replaced by a new story tomorrow, and will be replaced by a new story the next day. But the game Fundamentals remain unchanged.”
Completely correct. As of today, Biden has more campaign methods than ever before, and can get 270 electoral votes. Trump has fewer people.
Can it be changed? of course! In the summer of 2016, the election map looked like Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump. Oops, this is the case until autumn.
The election is not today. Trump will launch a campaign that is well-funded and may even be vicious, trying to portray Biden as disconnected on every issue from immigration to China to race. As reminded us all in the past few months, events can and do change to change what we think we know about the November election.
All of these are true. None of this has changed the fact that Trump is currently looking at the increasingly difficult election map, and there is little hint that major changes are coming in the near future.