This is Joe Biden's best path to win in 2020

Republican agents worry Trump will lose presidency and majority in Senate

Today, this view has changed dramatically.

A senior Republican aide in the Senate said: “So, I am very happy that my boss is not in this round of voting.”

Republican strategists are increasingly worried that Trump will be defeated in November and may drag other Republicans to his side.

Seven Republican agents who were not directly related to the president ’s campaign told CNN that Trump ’s response to the pandemic and the subsequent economic impact have severely damaged his bid for the second term, and that the impact is beginning It hurt Republicans more broadly. Some of these operators asked not to be identified in order to be more frank.

It is said that polls show that Trump is behind Biden, a candidate nominated by a presumptive Democratic candidate, reflecting what they found in their polls, and this trend is infiltrating the main election campaign in the Senate. The Republican Party has completed the difficult task of defending 23 Senate seats in 2020. As the pandemic spreads, it has become increasingly difficult to protect the majority of its three seats. States such as Arizona and North Carolina, once considered to be the seats to win the Senate race, are now in danger.
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Trump himself is being warned of these issues. Political News reported this week Trump ’s two external political advisers, Corey Lewandowski and David Bossi, warned the president last week that his support is declining in some volatile states.

All of this shows how difficult it is to become the current Republican parliamentarian almost anywhere in 2020. The strategist who spoke with CNN worried that Trump has become the responsibility of Republicans because Republicans need to expand their alliance beyond the core supporters of the president.

A few months ago, they were full of confidence in the party ’s overall opportunities, but many strategists who spoke with CNN lowered their expectations and are now talking about minimizing their concerns, which may hit the Republican Party. This made them want to suffer a minor rather than devastating defeat, which is similar to Mitt Romney ’s weak defeat in 2012, when the Republican Party lost two Senate seats instead of John Mai four years ago Kane (John McCain) lost eight seats performance.

Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist in Washington, said: “Republican candidates need Romney of ’12 more than McCain like ’08.

Republicans are generally worried that the election will be a referendum that Trump will perform during the pandemic. Coupled with a troubled economy, repressing Republican believers and shutting down vacillating voters can have devastating consequences.

One or two fists could cost the Republican Party power in Washington-this is how strategists hope that the president ’s re-election group will successfully transform the campaign into a strategy to choose between Trump and nasty Biden.

But in the context of the pandemic that destroyed many of the economic gains that the Republican Party had hoped to lay the foundation for its re-election debate, such efforts became increasingly difficult.

A Republican strategist said: “This is a topic he (Trump) cannot change.” He said: “This is not a political opponent, this will not go, he will never have to face such a thing.”

There is some evidence that Trump did not blame the economic decline on most people. In a recent CNN surveyFrom the beginning of May, Trump’s overall approval rate is 45%. Although only 42% of people agree with him how to deal with this pandemic, but 50% of people still say they agree with Trump’s treatment of the economy.

The Trump campaign argued that in dealing with the economy, Americans trust the president and they will choose the president as the person who leads the economic recovery.

Tim Murtaugh, director of communications for Trump campaigns, said: “The economic message resonates strongly, especially in times like this.” “President Trump is obviously the one who brought us back to this position. He did Once, he will do it again. “

Despite this, Republicans are still worried that the issue beyond Trump ’s control is that if there is no indication that the US economy will turn a corner before November, this will be an argument that Trump ’s campaign cannot make.

The Republican strategist said: “There is no sort of V-shaped recovery, and many people think he has died in the water.”

Trump Party

In the four years since winning the Republican nomination, Trump has consolidated his position within the party. This makes it harder for Republicans in Congress to stay away from him without angering his camp. Republican agents say that this may discourage voters who might consider Republicans but do not like the president.

A long-term Republican congressional advisor said: “This is a very, very difficult environment. If you have a college degree and live in the suburbs, you don’t want to vote for us.” He added that people are very worried about this. Bleeding support for the elderly and self-described independent men.

Some of the Republicans said that the party ’s main concern should be to maintain a majority of its Senate seats. This task requires Senate candidates to appeal to suburban voters who turned to the Democratic Party in the 2018 midterm elections in response to Trump.

But even in states where the Trump campaign is not expected to win, the Republican candidate ’s greatest reliance on the president complicates that goal. Senators Cory Gardner of Colorado and Susan Collins of Maine cannot afford the state ’s troubled Trump base, even if they exert their independence to win the swing voters.

Worries about Republicans have surpassed incumbent incumbents-including Senator Martha McSally of Arizona and Tom Tillies of North Carolina. Donovan said that for Trump, in a bad year, he even had the opportunity to appear in Georgia and Montana among Republican-controlled Senate seats.

Distance from the President

At the same time, the troubled economy has exacerbated the need for Republican senators to distinguish from Trump and his records in subtle ways. Scott Reed, political director of the American Chamber of Commerce and a veteran of the Republican election campaign, said the presidential re-election campaign “always” is a referendum on the current president and his party.

Reed said that if the economy could not improve or another wave of viruses appeared this summer, it would be a good sign for Republicans, but Reed said that the Republicans are not necessarily doomed. He pointed out that the prestige of Congress is relatively high-the approval rate is 31% In the latest Gallup pollThis is the highest level in a decade-partly due to the adoption of economic relief.

Reed said that incumbents should also brag about their personal, localized achievements and their independence from Trump, without having to explicitly alienate pro-Trump Republicans in their state.

For example, Gardner Claiming to be “Chief Architect” The Trump administration last year announced plans to relocate the headquarters of the Federal Land Administration to Colorado. The first Republican senator conceived this decision as a victory of the two-party system in Western countries, which is the vast majority of land managed by the federal government and Gardner ’s victory over Washington ’s bureaucracy. It also has benefits that have nothing to do with Trump himself or the economic crisis.
Collins (Collins) relied heavily on the independent centrist political identity she established in her fifth term campaign. Her recent TV commercial The Lugar Center at Georgetown University nominated her as “the most bipartisan senator in the United States” for the seventh consecutive year.

The line is designed to counter the Democratic Party ’s most consistent line of criticism-Collins has supported the Trump administration on Trump ’s vote, from judicial appointments to healthcare, to the president ’s innocence and imp. .

Republicans pointed out that although the Democratic Party and progressive interest groups have spent millions of dollars on television and digital advertising for incumbents, the Republican Party and its ally PAC have not fully participated in the air battle against the Democratic challengers.

Jesse Hunt, a spokesman for the National Republican Senate Committee, said: “The fact is that despite the fact that liberal black money groups have greatly exceeded spending, Republicans are still in a good position to occupy a majority of the Senate seats in the fall.”

The Trump campaign played down Republicans ’concerns about a failed vote, noting that the unified Republican Party provided the best chance of a full victory in November.

Ellin Perrylin, deputy communications director of the Trump campaign, said: “Any candidate who wants to win will run with the president.” “He is full of energy, enthusiasm and grassroots infrastructure. If you are a candidate, then you will Hope to be part of this movement. “

However, Republican professionals say that if the president insists on an encouraging message to get the country out of a pandemic, it will greatly help.

Reed said: “When he got it right for three consecutive days, it really increased his number.” “We need to execute orders in terms of message discipline.”

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